Parts of San Antonio are at ‘increased’ risk of severe weather tonight

Update, 3 p.m.: Just after 3 p.m. Monday, March 21, the San Antonio and Austin National Weather Service office updated the evening forecast and included all of San Antonio in a tornado watch encompassing several cities in Texas. The watch is due to expire at 10 p.m. Threats include tornadoes, hail and wind gusts up to 75 mph. All are “likely” in the affected areas. Tornado monitoring affects nearly 14 million residents.

The morning showers on Monday March 21 should diminish by noon, but that does not mean San Antonio will be a quiet evening, according to the National Weather Service. Another line of storms could affect the region during peak hours.

Nick Hampshire, an NWS bureau forecaster covering San Antonio and Austin, says the threat of stronger activity, with hazards like tornadoes and hail, is expected from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m.

“There will be strong storms around and they will be kind of dispersed,” he says. “Everyone has a chance.”

To visualize the scattered storms, the local office shared a high resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model on social media. It shows the line of severe weather areas north of San Antonio proper, such as San Marcos, past Austin, to Killeen and beyond. Although the storm appears to be beyond San Antonio’s reach in the model, NWS says the city could still be affected.

“This is a unique simulated radar model of HRRR. Just because it shows storms north of San Antonio DOES NOT mean San Antonio is in the clear,” the post read. “Other models have storms moving through and well south of San Antonio.”

Another visual released by the NWS shows counties from Del Rio to La Grange under a range of risk from “thunder” to “enhanced.” Most of San Antonio is rated as “mild risk,” but eastern portions of Bexar County are at the “improved” level. Flash floods are not expected. The main threats are hail, but damaging winds and tornadoes are also possible.

Skies are expected to clear by Tuesday, March 22, according to the NWS forecast.

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